war risk premiumPosts by

War-risk premiums hit 4% of hull value for seven days — 4,000 times the pre-crisis 0.001%. Container spot rates rose up to 75%. About 100 boxships and 412 vessels in total sat trapped in the Gulf. The strait reopens in June, but the freight and insurance numbers normalise over two to three months — the long tail of the institutional vacuum, paid by every importer and consumer. This post reads the supply-chain bill the oil price obscures.

Brent closed at $118 and WTI at $107 on April 29 after Trump said the US blockade of Iran will continue until a nuclear deal. US gasoline is forecast at $4.30/gal for the month. Walking a single gallon back to the tanker shows the chokepoint fee is small. The chokepoint risk is what is doing the work in your fill-up.