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Trump told CNBC he is ready to go back to war if no deal by Wednesday. Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf said Iran does not negotiate under threats and has prepared new cards on the battlefield. Vance is flying to Islamabad anyway. Monday and Tuesday are the signal. Northwood is the substance.

On Sunday 19 April, USS Spruance fired on and disabled the Iranian flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman. Marines boarded and took custody. First seizure of the crisis. Tehran has vowed retaliation. The line between blockade and seizure has been crossed, and it is structurally difficult to walk back.