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The IMO has launched an operation to evacuate 11,000+ seafarers from the strait, designating two temporary sea lanes (Northern near Iran, Southern through Oman and the UAE) and coordinating Iran, Oman, the UAE, the US and industry. Those are the traffic-management and multi-stakeholder coordination functions a chokepoint authority performs as routine. A global standards body is filling an institution-shaped hole in an emergency, on the very two-bank logic the site has argued for. This post reads the evacuation, and the human throughline from late April.

The strait has begun to reopen — three Iranian tankers out on 16 June, about seven ships since the announcement against a baseline of 120-140 a day. With the blockade lifted and the PGSA sanctioned, who assures a transiting ship arrives safely? Mines remain (clearance ~two months); administration goes to Iran-Oman with no Western role, but mine-clearing and escort fall to a UK/France/US coalition. Administration and assurance are split between parties who don’t coordinate. This post reads the assurance vacuum.

Approximately 20,000 seafarers are stranded across roughly 2,000 vessels in the Persian Gulf. The ITF has fielded 1,900 assistance requests, repatriated 450 crew, and designated the strait a Warlike Operations Area. The IMO Secretary-General has stated there is no safe transit anywhere in the strait. None of the routine coordination a treaty-backed chokepoint authority would provide currently exists at Hormuz.

Between twenty and thirty thousand seafarers are aboard two to three thousand stranded merchant vessels in the Gulf today. Most are Indian nationals. Drinking water is running out. At least one onboard death has been attributed to medevac failure. Today two Indian flagged ships were fired on in the same waterway. A functioning chokepoint authority would treat their welfare as standing operations, not as a humanitarian footnote.