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Russia sent 90 percent of its Q1 2026 crude exports to China and India. It is the commercial beneficiary of a crisis it helped block the UN from resolving. Understanding the Moscow windfall is understanding why any Hormuz governance regime that can actually work has to be designed to bypass Security Council veto dynamics.

India is the world’s third largest oil importer. This month the US waiver on Russian crude expired on April 11 and the US Navy blockaded Iranian ports on April 13. Indian refiners lost about 3 million barrels per day of Hormuz transiting supply. Strategic reserves cover 30 days. China’s cover 300.