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On 18-19 May 2026, Iranian state-affiliated reporting disclosed ‘Hormuz Safe,’ a crypto-settled state-backed marine insurance product for vessels using the PGSA corridor. The launch lands the day after the PGSA formal announcement. This post reads what Hormuz Safe can and cannot do relative to the International Group P&I cover the global operator class actually uses, and what a treaty-backed authority would do differently.

Additional War Risk Premiums on Gulf tanker transits sit around 1% of hull value per seven-day period, with stranded tankers paying up to 10%. All 12 International Group P&I Clubs gave 72 hours’ notice cancelling parts of war cover in the Gulf. The underwriter-side gatekeeping is, in effect, a chokepoint closure no government has formally declared. This post reads what an institutional answer would change about that.

Six transits on 3 May, five on 4 May — Project Freedom’s first day. The pre-war baseline is approximately 138 vessels per day. Five is roughly 3.6 per cent of normal and is probably the lowest single-day reading in the present crisis. The operational ratio of approximately 3,000 US service members per transit, against a Suez Canal Authority ratio of about 150 staff per transit, is the picture of a convoy operation rather than an institutional one.