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The deal’s implementation now has four working groups, Sanctions Termination, Nuclear Affairs, Reconstruction, and Monitoring, plus two coordination mechanisms for Lebanon and Hormuz demining. Reading the architecture reveals the gap: there is no working group for strait governance. The waterway the crisis was about got a demining mechanism and nothing else. The basket post asked to decouple the strait; instead it was dropped. This post argues for the fifth working group, the one the strait actually needs.

Five days ago this site warned that bundling strait governance with the nuclear file made it hostage to the most failure-prone negotiation in the region. This week the nuclear talks began stalling in public: Grossi says inspections were agreed and ‘explicitly’ mandated; Iran’s deputy FM says no, they await a final agreement after sanctions end, and no one even met Grossi in Switzerland. The basket problem is materializing on schedule. This post reads it, and renews the case to decouple the strait before the sixty days run out.