IEAPosts by

No loaded LNG tanker has exited Hormuz since late February. Qatar’s seventy-seven million tonne capacity at Ras Laffan, roughly twenty percent of global LNG, has no pipeline alternative. Shell declared force majeure 11 March. Full operations are not expected until August. The governance question is whether the eight-week vacuum becomes a sixteen-week vacuum.

Global oil supply fell 10.1 mb/d in March. Hormuz throughput collapsed 81%. The IEA says resuming strait flows is ‘the single most important variable’ in the global economy. The toll model is the institutional answer the report doesn’t provide.