Goldman SachsPosts by

Goldman Sachs projects Hormuz traffic may recover only to about 70% of pre-war levels, roughly 13m bpd, and calls the shift structural, not temporary. A chokepoint that closes teaches its users to need it less, and a risk premium learned in crisis does not leave when the strait reopens into the same institutional vacuum. The franchise erodes because nothing institutional stands behind the strait to earn back the trust the crisis destroyed. This post reads the warning as one with a deadline.