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War-risk premiums hit 4% of hull value for seven days — 4,000 times the pre-crisis 0.001%. Container spot rates rose up to 75%. About 100 boxships and 412 vessels in total sat trapped in the Gulf. The strait reopens in June, but the freight and insurance numbers normalise over two to three months — the long tail of the institutional vacuum, paid by every importer and consumer. This post reads the supply-chain bill the oil price obscures.