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On 20 June the strait was open and closed at once: the IRGC declared it closed, CENTCOM said traffic flows (55 ships, 17M barrels Saturday), Iran’s own Foreign Ministry said shipping was ‘operating normally,’ and the AIS showed vessels moving. Four answers, including two from one government. A chokepoint with no authority has no authoritative answer to the most basic question — are you open? This post reads the contested status as the symptom it is, and why this site has to run its own traffic light.

The strait has begun to reopen — three Iranian tankers out on 16 June, about seven ships since the announcement against a baseline of 120-140 a day. With the blockade lifted and the PGSA sanctioned, who assures a transiting ship arrives safely? Mines remain (clearance ~two months); administration goes to Iran-Oman with no Western role, but mine-clearing and escort fall to a UK/France/US coalition. Administration and assurance are split between parties who don’t coordinate. This post reads the assurance vacuum.

Six transits on 3 May, five on 4 May — Project Freedom’s first day. The pre-war baseline is approximately 138 vessels per day. Five is roughly 3.6 per cent of normal and is probably the lowest single-day reading in the present crisis. The operational ratio of approximately 3,000 US service members per transit, against a Suez Canal Authority ratio of about 150 staff per transit, is the picture of a convoy operation rather than an institutional one.

On 4 May 2026, the United States Navy began Project Freedom, a 15,000-personnel convoy escort operation guiding stranded merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. The operation does the urgent humanitarian work that needed doing. It is not, and is not designed to be, a chokepoint authority. This post reads Project Freedom on its own terms and explains why convoy and authority are sequential, not interchangeable.

On April 30, three news items combined: the US carrier in theatre is expected to leave with the war’s cost approaching $25B; Trump is being briefed by CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper on options; and the Senate failed to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution for the sixth time. Standing military commitment is being scaled back. Institutional commitment — blockade, sanctions, payment rules — is being scaled up. Both sides are recognising that institutions outlast operations.

The IRGC fired on a tanker and a projectile struck a container vessel in Hormuz today. Two of the ships are Indian flagged. India summoned Iran’s ambassador. CENTCOM has now turned back 23 vessels in the Gulf of Oman. A strait with a multilateral authority could have prevented all of this by design.