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On 10 May 2026, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Kharaitiyat transited Hormuz on the Tehran-approved corridor to Pakistan under a government-to-government LNG arrangement. The transit is the cleanest available case study of the bilateral carve-out pattern. This post reads the transit in detail, explains why the bilateral mechanism cannot scale to the broader LNG market, and identifies what an institutional default would replace it with.

Six India-flagged vessels transited inbound on 18 May 2026 in a coordinated cluster under bilateral Iran-India arrangements. The chokepoint is now operationally bifurcated: a compliant fleet under PGSA-administered transit and a holding queue of about 2,000 vessels waiting for the institutional configuration the operator class can use. This post reads the bifurcation, the historical parallel of the 2018-2025 shadow fleet, and what a treaty-backed authority would do to consolidate it.