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Six India-flagged vessels transited inbound on 18 May 2026 in a coordinated cluster under bilateral Iran-India arrangements. The chokepoint is now operationally bifurcated: a compliant fleet under PGSA-administered transit and a holding queue of about 2,000 vessels waiting for the institutional configuration the operator class can use. This post reads the bifurcation, the historical parallel of the 2018-2025 shadow fleet, and what a treaty-backed authority would do to consolidate it.

On April 29, real-time tracking showed three to eight Hormuz transits in 24 hours against a pre-crisis baseline of about 60 vessels per day. Five per cent of normal. The post walks through what is and is not still moving, what a treaty-backed authority’s monthly statistical bulletin would record, and why the throughput floor is an institutional fact rather than only a military one.